Ticking Bomb
Economist (11/22/02) Vol. 365, No. 8299 p.56
According to Fitch Ratings, the shortfall of America's
pension funds will equal $30 billion in the car manufacturing
industry sector, and Standard & Poor's estimates that pension
funds across all industries will be underfunded by $300 billion
in 2002. The poor state of the economy, faltering stock market
prices, lower interest rates, and poor equity returns are to
blame for the most part, but companies are also faced with
liabilities from other post-employment benefits, such as retiree
health care benefits. Even if the stock market increased pension
fund returns to 6 percent, American companies would still be
forced to find an additional $80 million to keep the funds
breaking even, and if the return rate were just 4 percent, the
companies would need $110 billion. Analysts agree that the
steel, car manufacturing, and airline industries are hit the
hardest because they have the fastest-aging workforces. Perhaps
insurance could ease the burden as some British firms have
suggested.