Corporate Pension Plans: How Consistent are the Assumptions?
Mid-American Journal of Business (11/02) Vol. 17, No. 2 p.23; Newell, Gale E.; Kreuze, Jerry G.; Hurtt, David
Noting that accounting for pension plan obligations
requires companies to make certain assumptions about discount
rates, future salary increases, and long-term return on assets,
the authors of this article examined how the assumptions differ
among firms. For plans having fewer plan assets compared to the
projected benefit obligation, it is important to note that the
higher the assumed rate, the lower the calculated liability,
which means required contributions are smaller, as are the
lump-sum payment; this means companies have incentives to go with
higher discount rates, particularly for less funded pension
plans. During the stock-market boom in the late 1990s, actual
returns on pension plan assets were much larger than expected
returns, creating large cumulative unrecognized gains for most
companies, but when the market declined in 2000 and 2001, actual
returns created unrecognized losses which could cause plans to
appear underfunded, thus requiring higher premium payments.
According to a study of 214 companies' actuarial assumptions
between 1987 and 1996, the more funded plans tended to choose
discount rates lower than the sample average rate, while less
funded plans chose higher-than-average discount rates. The
authors' new survey looked at data on a random subsample of
Compustat companies that had reported the information needed for
the survey and also had similar yearends. The authors ended up
doubtful that the more funded plans collectively should be
assuming higher discount rates and expected long-term return on
plan assets, given that the actual return on plan assets did not
correlate with the assumptions.